The Race for the Arctic

An image of the Nagurskoye airbase sourced from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nagurskoye_(air_base)

In the fifth month of 2021, the Russian military aircraft Ilyushin II-76 landed for the very first time on the Frank Josef Land archipelago in the midst of the Arctic Ocean. The plane came to rest at Nagurskoye - the Russian army’s northernmost base - carrying 80 people, as well as 3 tons of equipment required for further construction on the airbase. During the Cold War, Nagurskoye consisted only of a runway, a weather station and a communications outpost. But according to AP News, it is now “bristling with missiles and radar” and an “extended runway can handle all types of aircraft, including nuclear-capable strategic bombers”. What could the purpose of these recent developments be? Is it simply Russia’s way of flexing its political muscle, or something far more sinister? What is going on in the Arctic? Let’s find out.

First of all, how exactly do we define the Arctic? As established by most geologists, the Arctic is the area between Arctic Circle, a major latitude that is 66.5 degrees north of the Equator, and the North Pole, which is situated a whole 90 degrees above the Equator. The region consists mainly of liquid saltwater, with most of its freshwater frozen in the form of glaciers and icebergs.

A map of the Arctic and surrounding nations sourced from https://geology.com/world/arctic-ocean-map.shtml

Unlike Antarctica, which covers roughly the same area as the Arctic, the latter region is inhabited. Yes, it's true! The Arctic is in fact home to four million people, including one million indigenous people divided into over 40 different ethnic groups. The majority of this indigenous population lives within the borders of a country and therefore falls under its administration, although some groups - like the Inuit of Canada - are fighting for their right to self-government.

The Arctic is surrounded by eight countries, each owning a small slice of it: Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, USA, and, of course, Russia. The governments of these countries, together with representatives of the Arctic’s indigenous population, form the Arctic Council. Established on 19 September 1996 upon the signing of the Ottawa Declaration, this body helps maintain peace in the Arctic by promoting "cooperation, coordination and interaction" among its members. It plays a major role in sustainable development and environmental protection in the region. Most of its work is, however, research-based, as the Council refuses to "enforce its guidelines, assessments or recommendations." The chairmanship of the Arctic Council rotates every two years among the Arctic States, the current chairman being none other than the Russian Federation. But while this Council keeps peace in the Arctic, it does not own the entirety of it. So who does?

The simple answer is nobody. The eight nations surrounding the Arctic Ocean merely own strips of land on its coastline and can, according to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, exploit resources from the seabed upto 370 kilometres off their shorelines. The Arctic Ocean itself, though, being an (albeit mostly frozen) ocean, has no owner. But is this about to change?

Due to climate change, the blanket of ice covering the Arctic Ocean has begun to melt rapidly. According to Richard Powell, a polar geographer at the Scott Polar Research Institute at the University of Cambridge, the Arctic will be ice-free by “around 2040 or 2050”. As the ice melts, it leaves behind it an estimated 13% of the world's undiscovered oil and 30% of its undiscovered natural gas, which have long been buried under the frozen surface. The demand for such resources, while lessened since the introduction of renewable sources of energy, is still exceptionally high. Therefore, countries like Russia and the USA are likely to compete for dominance over this well of untapped resources. This brings us to Russia’s latest move.

Russia’s expanding its military base closest to the Arctic has aroused suspicion that the country plans to make a grab for the resource-rich region. “We have concerns about some of the recent military activities in the Arctic that increases the dangers of accidents and miscalculations and undermines the shared goal of a peaceful and sustainable future for the region,” stated USA Secretary of State Antony Blinken. As of now, the Russian Federation has only militarised its own territory. Will it dare to invoke the Arctic Coucil's wrath by venturing further? On one hand, it is clear that countries like the USA will not take any such attempt of Russia's lying down. On the other, the Arctic Council’s mandate explicitly excluding military security would enable Russia to carry out such a scheme without its intervention.

If the Russian government were to get its hands on unclaimed Arctic terrain, it would most likely result in what several ironically refer to as the "new Cold War".